Listen to the House Price Index headlines with Richard Donnell
Key figures
The average house price in the UK is £267,100 as of August 2024 (published in October 2024).
Property prices are now at 0.7% inflation compared to a year ago. However, the average UK house price is set to rise by 2.5% by the end of the year.
Average house price in June 2024 | Average house price in July 2024 | Average house price in August 2024 | Year-on-year change (£) | Year-on-year change (%) | |
All property | £265,600 | £266,400 | £267,100 | +£1,970 | +0.7% |
Detached houses | £449,000 | £450,100 | £451,600 | +£1,190 | +0.3% |
Flats | £191,700 | £191,900 | £191,500 | +£20 | 0% |
Semi-detached houses | £271,200 | £272,100 | £273,200 | +£1,840 | +1% |
Terraced houses | £234,300 | £235,200 | £235,800 | +£3,310 | +1.4% |
The graph below shows how the UK’s average house price has changed in the last 10 years.
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Double-digit growth in sales market activity
Home buyers are benefitting from the lowest average mortgage rates for 15 months, which is supporting double-digit growth in all key measures of sales market activity. Annual house price inflation is positive, but remains below 1%.
Nationally, home buyer demand is up 26% on this time last year, as more homes are listed for sale and sellers look for somewhere new to buy.
The average mortgage rate for a new 5-year 75% LTV loan is 4.3%, compared to 5.5% a year ago, the lowest since May 2023.
And intense competition among lenders is keeping rates attractive for buyers, especially for those with larger amounts of equity.
The number of sales agreed is now 25% higher than a year ago as households that have held off making moving decisions over the last 2 years return to the market.
Sales are up by over 10% across the UK, and more than 30% across the East Midlands and North East.
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House price inflation improving but still sluggish
Increased sales activity is supporting modest price rises, rather than causing any acceleration in home values.
Affordability remains a constraint on house price growth, especially in southern England where home values are already high.
And house prices in the South West, South East and East of England are currently lower than they were a year ago.
However across the UK as a whole, annual house price inflation is up +0.7% from -0.3% a year ago and will continue to improve slowly in the coming months.
Across all other areas of Great Britain, house price growth is higher than a year ago, with prices up to 2.5% higher.
Home values in Northern Ireland are up 5.5%, having under-performed the rest of the market in recent years.
Meanwhile London prices have registered the biggest turnaround over the last year, moving from annual price falls of -1.7% a year ago to modest price gains of +0.5% today.
More supply will keep price inflation in check
Rising sales volumes are being supported by more homes available for sale, up 12% on this time last year.
Many of these homes are new listings from home owners looking to sell and buy another home. However, not all homes are ‘brand new’ to the market and a fifth of homes currently for sale were previously on the market over the last two years.
While market conditions are improving, setting the right price is important to attract buyers. The same applies to the fifth of homes for sale that have been on the market for more than 6 months, still unsold.
This explains why a similar proportion have had their asking price cut by 5% or more to attract buyers. These trends show buyers remain price-sensitive as choice improves and sellers need to price sensibly to agree a sale.
Tax change speculation boosts supply
Speculation over possible tax changes in the Budget is likely to support the growth in supply with investors, second home owners and others with multiple homes considering selling.
Nearly a third (32%) of homes for sale on Zoopla are ‘chain-free’. Outside London, 1 and 2-bed flats are most likely to be chain-free, while in London 2 and 3-bed houses are most likely to be chain-free.
Higher mortgage rates have forced some landlords into selling, with 13% of homes for sale being previously rented. Most of these (53%) are in London and the South East, where modest yields, higher mortgage rates and low house price growth impacted returns for investors over recent years.
Looking ahead, many English councils are planning to double council tax for second homes from next year. Coastal and rural postal areas including Truro, Torquay, Exeter, Bournemouth, Lincoln and Norwich have all seen available supply increase by over 40%, which is partly a result of tax changes. Annual house price growth is negative in these areas, with the rising supply keeping prices in check.
House prices will continue to rise slowly
Rising sales volumes and modest house price inflation are positive for the housing market.
There are sufficient levels of market activity to keep drawing in new buyers who are prepared to make sensible offers on competitively-priced homes.
Sellers remain keen to get the best price for their home to unlock their next move, but buyers remain price-sensitive and have a greater choice of homes to buy.
While sales prices have firmed, we find that almost 2 in 5 sales (37%) are agreed at more than 5% below the initial asking price.
This highlights how a high proportion of buyers continue to make offers below the asking price and while this proportion has improved from a year ago, it stays at a level which suggests single-digit house price growth lies ahead.
Housing market outlook
The housing market continues to adjust to higher borrowing costs through low house price growth and a steady recovery in sales.
Expectations of lower mortgage rates are a real attraction for would-be movers, with some lenders offering mortgage rates below 4%.
The outlook for interest rates is far from certain though, considering global events. Today’s ‘fixed’ mortgage rates already reflect the extent to which financial markets expect UK interest rates to move lower in the next 2-5 years.
Our view is that mortgage rates will settle in the high 3% and low 4%s into 2025, meaning a modest improvement in borrowing costs over the coming months.
Together with rising household incomes, every little helps to improve affordability for home buyers and these will continue to support sales volumes and a steady recovery of prices.
The outlook is more positive than it was a year ago, but sellers need to manage their expectations on pricing if they are serious about agreeing a sale in a timely manner.
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About our House Price Index
The Zoopla House Price Index (HPI) is a repeat sales-based price index, using sold prices, mortgage valuations and data for recently agreed sales. The index uses more input data than any other and is designed to accurately track the change in pricing for UK housing. It’s a revisionary index and non-seasonally adjusted.
The HPI for October 2024 uses the most recent full data available up to August 2024. We revise previous data where needed to ensure the most accurate representation of the market at any given time.